Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-13 33.440478 36.182415 39.189872 42.761851 46.927067 51.679931 57.587215
2025-07-20 29.076587 32.618363 36.762929 42.066122 48.820991 57.365505 69.406673
2025-07-27 27.652996 31.864565 37.041861 44.074590 53.734154 67.169250 88.677272
2025-08-03 26.191565 30.770489 36.607269 44.907749 57.023994 75.312549 108.347112
2025-08-10 24.798235 29.565022 35.813516 45.029546 59.178410 82.124332 128.653940
2025-08-17 23.236023 27.977901 34.313074 43.897362 59.155330 85.274364 143.466618
2025-08-24 21.894465 26.574273 32.924197 42.735450 58.844254 87.767196 158.195047
2025-08-31 21.557923 26.499612 33.373284 44.365985 63.377417 100.513420 207.987759
2025-09-07 20.532818 25.393748 32.236887 43.368694 63.136432 103.523881 232.940558
2025-09-14 19.660278 24.450760 31.269876 42.540233 63.063336 106.884477 263.316515
2025-09-21 18.602895 23.192114 29.756499 40.682204 60.802624 104.640120 269.558213
2025-09-28 17.783706 22.240618 28.655908 39.431441 59.570782 104.650325 287.170203
2025-10-05 17.506355 22.164781 29.038290 41.014508 64.804664 124.680259 477.571702
2025-10-12 16.711176 21.299580 28.162155 40.366848 65.481421 133.455242 673.916954
2025-10-19 16.524349 21.316532 28.663100 42.236763 72.139661 166.388092 2199.407986
2025-10-26 16.136864 20.998184 28.586108 43.011184 76.527297 197.042034 134752.851915
2025-11-02 15.665915 20.519204 28.198915 43.124333 79.314468 225.380586 NaN
2025-11-09 15.037178 19.759883 27.284222 42.071935 78.729345 236.443119 NaN
2025-11-16 14.453167 19.043688 26.399070 40.990482 77.846488 245.665989 NaN
2025-11-23 14.330361 19.048064 26.749000 42.507698 84.952508 324.362701 NaN
2025-11-30 13.842012 18.443558 25.993790 41.580055 84.351714 342.877175 NaN
2025-12-07 13.409406 17.911572 25.338092 40.808641 84.102987 366.613348 NaN
2025-12-14 12.861357 17.174097 24.283347 39.075854 80.368705 347.118015 NaN